Her work in "Connor's Wedding," the episode in which Logan Roy (Brian Cox) dies and Shiv is helpless on the far end of a phone call, is probably what will win her the Emmy Award in September, though everything from Shiv’s scheduled grieving time to her explosive Election Eve fight with Tom to her final showdown with Kendall all contribute to a winning portfolio for the Australian actress. The timing is right, with Shiv Roy's emotional rollercoaster of a storyline this season providing Snook with plenty of opportunities to impress voters. Taking into account the relative popularity of shows, Emmy voters' historical tendencies, and the ever-ephemeral buzz, here's our best guess at where things stand for the 12 actresses throwing elbows (metaphorically!) to get one of the six available nominations.Īt the top of the heap is Succession's Sarah Snook, who is leveling up from the supporting actress race for her show's final season.
Will voters latch on to this third iteration of royals the same way they did for the first two? The predictive math gets even more complicated when it comes to The Crown, a consistent Emmy player that changes casts every two seasons. Some contenders, like Succession's Sarah Snook, are moving up from supporting to lead, while others, like The Handmaid's Tale's Elisabeth Moss, have been nominated in the past but were either ineligible or passed over in 2022. Of last year's field, only Yellowjackets' Melanie Lynskey is eligible to be nominated again. Another surprise nod for Reese Witherspoon won't be possible until next year, after The Morning Show airs its third season. Killing Eve and Ozark have ended, taking Jodie Comer, Sandra Oh, and Laura Linney off of the board. Two-time winner Zendaya won't be nominated this year… and maybe not next year, since season 3 of Euphoria is rumored to premiere in 2025. But this year, nearly all of last year's Actress in a Drama nominees are ineligible, for one reason or another. Emmy voters are creatures of habit, and repeat nominations are more the rule than the exception. The easiest path to predicting who will get nominated for this year's Emmys is to look back at who was nominated for last year's Emmys. Predicting this year's Best Drama Actress field is uniquely difficult because we're dealing with a near-clean slate. After that, it's looking like up to a dozen serious contenders will be scrambling for the five remaining slots. The only real lock, unsurprisingly, comes from Succession. That is very much not the case when it comes to Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series, which, from a pre-nominations standpoint, appears to be the most competitive category on the ballot. Give or take a Harrison Ford and you're all set.
In the Lead Actor in a Drama category, for instance, you've got three Succession leads, a Bob Odenkirk, a Pedro Pascal, and whomever is currently playing Prince Charles on The Crown. In most of the major acting categories, that makes room for all of the top contenders. In reaction to the sheer volume of television shows produced in a given year, the Emmys have recently expanded the number of nominees in a given category to six, seven, or even eight nominees. For obvious reasons, the run-up to Emmy nominations has become a wild scrum of contenders in recent years.
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